HURRICANE KATRINA - September 2005

Hurricane Katrina was a significant tropical cyclone of the 2005 Atlantic hurricane season. It developed from a tropical wave about 175 miles east of Nassau in the Bahamas. The hurricane strengthened to a Category 1 hurricane before making landfall on the Miami-Dade/Broward county line in Florida, United States. After moving southwest across Florida the hurricane exited west into the Gulf of Mexico where it underwent rapid intensification, reaching Category 5 on August 28, 2005 and remaining there for the entire day. It made its second landfall near Buras, Louisiana with 145 mph winds, or Category 4, on August 29, 2005. Hurricane Katrina's eyewall then passed over the eastern edge of New Orleans before the hurricane was again over water. A few hours later it made landfall for a third time near the Louisiana/Mississippi border with 125 mph winds, or Category 3. It weakened from this point forward, losing hurricane status crossing over 100 miles inland, near Laurel, Mississippi. It was downgraded to a tropical depression near Clarksville, Tennessee as it continued to race northward.

What about storms and global warming Mr President?

As the hurricane approached landfall near New Orleans, Mayor Ray Nagin placed the city under a mandatory evacuation order. Many residents remained in the city. The vast majority of those who stayed were reported to have been unable to leave because they did not have vehicles, money for gas and other transporation. Also, many residents were unable to travel because they were elderly or infirm. Federal disaster declarations blanketed 90,000 square miles (233,000 km²) of the United States, an area almost as large as the United Kingdom. The hurricane left an estimated five million people without power, and it may be up to two months before all power is restored. Disaster relief plans are in operation in the affected areas.

Early in the morning of August 30, 2005 and as a direct result of Hurricane Katrina, breaches in three places of the levee system on the Lake Pontchartrain side of New Orleans caused a second and even greater disaster. Heavy flooding covered almost the entire city over a sustained period, forcing the total evacuation of over a million people. The city was now uninhabitable, due to 80% of its area being below sea level meaning that the water had nowhere to go.

On September 3, 2005 US Homeland Security Secretary Michael Chertoff described the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina as "probably the worst catastrophe, or set of catastrophes" in the country's history, referring to the Hurricane itself plus the flooding of New Orleans.

Hurricane Katrina may be the deadliest hurricane in the United States since the Galveston Hurricane of 1900, which killed around 8,000 (possibly up to 12,000) people. As of 7 PM CDT September 1, 2005, more than 20,000 are still reported missing. New Orleans mayor Ray Nagin stated on August 31 that the death toll of Katrina may be "in the thousands", an estimate also provided through a statement by Louisiana Governor Kathleen Blanco on September 1.

Accurate numbers are not known. Damage was reported in at least 12 states. Hurricane Katrina will be remembered for its vast devastation of the Gulf Coast regions of Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama. The hurricane will also be remembered for the ineffective pre-planning for hurricane prepardness in New Orleans, as well as the slow response on the part of federal, state and local governments to provide effective search and rescue and safe refuge for the storm's victims.

Hurricane Katrina wind swath

Storm development

The U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC) issued a statement on August 23 saying that Tropical Depression Twelve had formed over the southeastern Bahamas. The numbering of the system was debated, as Tropical Depression Twelve formed partially from the remains of Tropical Depression Ten. The naming and numbering rules at the NHC require a system to keep the same identity if it dies, then regenerates, which would normally have caused this storm to remain numbered Ten. However, the NHC gave this storm a new number because a second disturbance merged with the remains of Tropical Depression Ten on August 20, and there is no way to tell whether the remnants of T.D. Ten should be credited with this storm. (This is different from Hurricane Ivan in the 2004 season, when the NHC ruled that Ivan did indeed reform; the remnant of Ivan that regenerated in the Gulf of Mexico was a distinct system from the moment Ivan originally dissipated to the moment it regained tropical storm strength.) The system was upgraded to Tropical Storm Katrina on the morning of August 24. Katrina became the fourth hurricane of the 2005 season on August 25 and made landfall later that day around 6:30 p.m. between Hallandale Beach and Aventura, Florida.

Hurricane Katrina Aug 28 05 near peak intensity

At 12:40 a.m. CDT (0540 UTC) on August 28, Katrina was upgraded to Category 4. Later that morning, Katrina went through a period of rapid intensification, with its maximum sustained winds reaching as high as 175 mph (280 km/h) (well above the Category 5 threshold of 156 mph (250 km/h)) and a pressure of 906 mbar by 1:00 p.m. CDT. Nonetheless, on August 29 the system made landfall as a strong Category 4 hurricane at 6:10 a.m. CDT near Buras-Triumph, Louisiana with maximum sustained winds of 145 mph (235 km/h). Katrina, which affected a very wide swath of land covering a good portion of eastern North America, was last seen in the eastern Great Lakes region. Before being absorbed by the frontal boundary, Katrina's last known position was over southeast Quebec and northern New Brunswick.

Its lowest minimum pressure at landfall was 918 mbar, making it the third strongest hurricane on record to make landfall on the United States. A 15 to 30 foot (5 to 9 m) storm surge came ashore on virtually the entire coastline from Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama to Florida. The 30 foot (10 m) storm surge recorded at Biloxi, Mississippi is the highest ever observed in America.

At 11 p.m. EDT on August 31 (0300 UTC, September 1), U.S. government weather officials announced that the center of the remnant low of what was Katrina had been completely absorbed by a frontal boundary in southeastern Canada, with no discernible circulation. The Hydrometeorological Prediction Center's last public advisory on Katrina was at 11 p.m. EDT Wed 31 August 2005 and the Canadian Hurricane Centre's last public advisory on Katrina was at 8 a.m. EDT Wed 31 August 2005.

Tornadoes

Eye of Hurricane Katrina from NOAA aircraft Aug 28 05

There were tornado reports near Adams and Cumberland Counties in Pennsylvania, in Fauquier, Virginia, in Atlanta, Georgia, in Carroll County, Georgia, in Carrollton, Georgia, in White County, Georgia, in Helen, Georgia, and in Mobile, Alabama. No deaths were reported from the tornadoes, but several injuries were reported in Georgia. 500,000 chickens were killed or set free after dozens of poultry houses were damaged in Carroll County, Georgia. There was major damage in Helen, Georgia, destroying homes and a hotel.

Historical context and Comparisons

By hurricane intensity

Katrina was the third most intense hurricane to hit the United States in recorded history. In the Atlantic Basin it achieved the status of the fourth lowest central pressure ever recorded.

By cost

Many estimates predict that Katrina was the costliest storm in history to strike the United States, surpassing Hurricane Andrew which ravaged Miami-Dade County, Florida, in 1992.

By death toll

Katrina was the second-deadliest named storm to hit the US, and may be declared the deadliest when the final toll is known. Other storms that killed many U.S. citizens include:

• The Galveston Hurricane of 1900, which killed an estimated 8,000–12,000.

• 1957's Hurricane Audrey, which killed 390, with up to 160 more never accounted for.

• 1969's Hurricane Camille, which killed 256.

Other deadly storms include:

• 1970 Bhola cyclone, the deadliest tropical cyclone on record, which killed at least 150,000 and perhaps as many as half a million in East Pakistan (now Bangladesh).

• Great Hurricane of 1780, the deadliest Atlantic storm on record, which killed over 22,000;

• 1998's Hurricane Mitch, the deadliest named Atlantic storm, which killed more than 18,000 people in Central America.

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Helicopter rescues flood survivor

Other USA hurricanes

Katrina has been compared with Hurricane Camille because both were intense Category 5 storms which made landfall in the same general area. Katrina has also drawn comparisons to Hurricane Betsy, because of its similar track and potential effects on New Orleans. In 1965, Betsy struck New Orleans after passing over the Florida Keys, causing over $1.5 billion USD in damage in 1965 (over $9 billion in inflation-adjusted dollars), and the deaths of 75 people, earning it the nickname "Billion Dollar Betsy". However, although Betsy was nearly a Category 5 hurricane at landfall, it was fast moving limiting its potential for devastation, while Katrina was a slow-moving Category 4. For Katrina, some potential damage estimates exceed the $36 billion damage (in current dollars) caused by Hurricane Andrew (previously the most destructive natural disaster to have hit the United States).

Hurricane Katrina is sure to be compared with the Galveston Hurricane of 1900. Like Katrina, the Galveston Hurricane landed as a Category 4 storm. Also like Katrina, large numbers of deaths in Galveston (estimated to be between 6,000 and 12,000) were due to flooding after the hurricane passed.

Other USA city devastations/disasters

Katrina also caused the first total devastation of a major American city since the 1906 San Francisco earthquake and subsequent fires.

Other disasters in New Orleans

This is the greatest disaster in New Orleans since its founding in 1718.

New Orleans has a know history of frequent and recurrent brushes with hurricanes. On average, New Orleans has been brushed every 3.94 years. Direct hurricane hits have occurred every 13.4 years.

Other levee and flood disasters

No other levee breach in the USA has caused such a level of death or such an extensive evacuation. However, devastation in other parts of the world, caused by levee breaches, has been greater.

• The Johnstown Flood in 1889 killed 2,200 people when the South Fork Dam burst, submerging the city of Johnstown, Pennsylvania.

• 1931 Huang He flood and following levee breaches killed millions.

• The Great Mississippi Flood along the Mississippi River in 1927–1928 killed 246 people, left approximately 700,000 homeless, and destroyed or damaged 137,000 buildings.

• The Great Flood of 1993 along the Mississippi River killed 47 people, displaced approximately 74,000, and destroyed or damaged 47,650 buildings.

Comparison to other evacuations/refugee crisis

Other cities which have been evacuated are:

• In 2002 severe flooding led to the evacuation of 50,000 residents of Prague, Czech Republic, on 14th August, with a total of 200,000 Czechs during the second August week. Also partially evacuated in the same week were the German city of Dresden (120,000 evacuees) and the town Bitterfeld (16,000).

• In January 2002, 300,000 residents of the city of Goma (Democratic Republic of the Congo) were evacuated in 3 days due to the eruption of the volcano Nyiragongo.

• In 1999 the Kosovo War led to 800,000 refugees, not all of them urban residents, leaving Kosovo and being accommodated for up to 3 months in other parts of Europe.

• In September 1939, at the outset of World War II, London and major British cities were evacuated with 1.5 million displacements in the first 3 days of the official evacuation taking place reaching a final total of 3.75 million.

• In April of 1986 roughly 200,000 people were evacutated from Chernobyl following a nuclear meltdown at the Chernobyl nuclear power plant in Ukraine (then part of the Soviet Union).

Hurricane and flood preparedness

"It's only a matter of time before South Louisiana takes a direct hit from a major hurricane. Billions have been spent to protect us, but we grow more vulnerable every day." New Orleans Times-Picayune June 23 - 27 June 2002.

Preparations and expectations before landfall

Predictions

Florida had little advance warning when Katrina strengthened from a tropical storm to a hurricane in one day, and struck southern Florida later that same day, on August 25.

By August 26 the possibility of "unprecedented cataclysm" was already being considered. Some computer models were putting New Orleans right in the center of their track probabilities, and the chances of a direct hit were forecast at nearly 10%.

Katrina storm track August 26th at 11 PM

On August 27, after Katrina crossed southern Florida and strengthened to Category 3, the President declared a state of emergency in Louisiana, two days before the hurricane made landfall. This declaration activated efforts by Federal Emergency Management Agency to position stockpiles of food, water and medical supplies throughout Louisiana and Mississippi more than a day before Katrina made landfall. Dr. Jeff Masters stated that he was "surprised they haven't ordered an evacuation of the city yet", as the chance of "a catastropic hit that would completely flood the city of New Orleans [were] probably 10%". Blogger Brendan Loy questioned, "If you knew there was a 10 percent chance terrorists were going to set off a nuclear bomb in your city on Monday, would you stick around, or would you evacuate?".

On August 28 the National Weather Service issued a bulletin predicting "devastating" damage rivaling the intensity of Hurricane Camille. Mayor Nagin ordered a mandatory evactuation of the city.

The risk of devastation from a direct hit was well documented. The Times-Picayune newspaper ran a series on the risk (Wall Street Journal Online, by Joe Hagan, 8-31-05, p. A5). National Geographic ran a feature in October 2004 . Scientific American covered the topic thoroughly in an October 2001 piece titled "Drowning New Orleans" . Walter Williams did a serious short feature on it called "New Orleans: The Natural History", in which an expert said a direct hit by a hurricane could damage the city for six months.  The city of New Orleans was considered to be particularly at risk since most of it is below sea level and it was likely that storm surge from a hurricane passing over the city would flood the city after topping the surrounding levees.

Evacuation

At a news conference 10 a.m. on August 28, shortly after Katrina was upgraded to a Category 5 storm, New Orleans mayor C. Ray Nagin, calling Katrina "a storm that most of us have long feared", ordered the first ever mandatory evacuation of the city. Roughly 150,000 people did not obey the order to evacuate. It is not currently clear what percentage of those who did not evacuate were unable, rather than unwilling, to do so. Future analysis of Motor Vehicle Registration, Census and Social Security Information, and Death Certificates may help to provide clarity. During the Hurricane Ivan evacuation, 600,000 people remained in the city.

Nagin established several "refuges of last resort" for citizens who could not leave the city, including the massive Louisiana Superdome, which housed over 9,000 people along with 550 National Guard troops when Katrina came ashore. A National Guard official said on Thursday, September 1 that as many as 60,000 people had gathered at the Superdome for evacuation, having remained there in increasingly difficult circumstances.

Mandatory evacuations were also ordered for Assumption, Jefferson (Kenner, Metairie, as well as Grand Isle and other low lying areas), Lafourche (outside the floodgates), Plaquemines, St. Charles and St. James parishes and parts of Tangipahoa and Terrebonne parishes in Louisiana.

In Alabama, evacuations were ordered for parts of Mobile and Baldwin counties (including Gulf Shores). In Mississippi, evacuations were ordered for parts of Hancock, Harrison and Jackson counties.

Transportation and infrastructure

On Sunday, August 28, Canadian National Railway (CN) suspended all rail traffic on its lines south of McComb, Mississippi (lines owned by its subsidiary Illinois Central Railroad that extend into New Orleans, Louisiana), in anticipation of damage from the hurricane. To help ease the resumption of services after the storm passes, CN also issued an embargo with the Association of American Railroads against all deliveries to points south of Osyka, Mississippi. CSX Transportation also suspended service south of Montgomery, Alabama until further notice. The CSX (former Louisville and Nashville Railroad) main line from Mobile to New Orleans is believed to have suffered extensive damage, especially in coastal Mississippi, but repair crews were not able to reach most parts of the line as of August 30.

Amtrak, America's rail passenger carrier, announced that the southbound City of New Orleans passenger trains from Chicago, Illinois, on August 29 and through September 3 would terminate in Memphis, Tennessee, rather than their usual destination of New Orleans; the corresponding northbound trains will also originate in Memphis. The southbound Crescent from New York, New York, for the same period terminated in Atlanta, Georgia, with the corresponding northbound trains originating in Atlanta as well. Amtrak's westbound Sunset Limited originated in San Antonio, Texas, rather than its normal origin point of Orlando, Florida. Amtrak announced that no alternate transportation options would be made available into or out of the affected area.

The Waterford nuclear power plant was shut down on Sunday, August 28, before Katrina's arrival.

Local effects and aftermath

FEMA map of affected area

Areas affected include southern Florida, Louisiana (especially the Greater New Orleans area), Mississippi, Alabama, the western Florida Panhandle, western and north Georgia were affected by tornadoes, the Tennessee Valley and Ohio Valley regions, the eastern Great Lakes region and the length of the western Appalachians. Over 300 deaths have been reported in seven states, a number which is expected to rise as casualty reports come in from areas currently inaccessible. New Orleans Mayor Ray Nagin estimates hundreds, and as many as thousands, are feared dead. Two levees in New Orleans gave way, and eighty percent of the city is now under water, which in some places is 20 to 25 feet (7 or 8 meters) deep.

By September 2, NOAA had published satellite photography of many of the affected regions.

Hurricane Katrina will go down in history as the most devastating hurricane ever to hit the United States, surpassing the devastation of Hurricane Andrew.

Death toll (summary)

The unconfirmed death toll reported in various regions is given in the chart to the right. These are confirmed deaths from local news agencies. Direct deaths indicate those caused by the direct effects of the winds, flooding, storm surge or oceanic effects of Katrina. Indirect deaths indicate those caused by hurricane-related accidents (including car accidents), fires or other incidents, as well as clean-up incidents and health issues.

However, the projected death toll may be much higher especially in New Orleans. But efforts are presently focussed on rescue and restoring order, rather than recovery of the dead. On 31 August, the Mayor of New Orleans, Ray Nagin told reporters that the hurricane probably killed thousands of people in the city.

This view was confirmed on September 1 by U.S. Senator Mary Landrieu who said "We understand there are thousands of dead people".  In a press conference broadcast live on 4WWL at 1915 UTC on September 1 Governor Kathleen Blanco said that thousands of deaths were believed to have occurred in New Orleans. The FEMA representative said that they have brought in a deployable morgue.

On September 3 US Senator David Vitter (R-LA) said that the death toll from Hurricane Katrina could top 10,000 in Louisiana alone. "My guess is that it will start at 10,000, but that is only a guess," Vitter said.